marishna: (Teen Wolf- (401) Kira glowy eye)
marishna ([personal profile] marishna) wrote2016-02-28 04:19 pm
NSFW

And the Oscar goes to...

I'll be live tweeting the event tonight on my RL twitter: erins2_26. Feel free to join in, watch, or mute the shit out of me.

This is the first year in a long time, possibly ever, that I've watched more than one or two of the Oscar pics. I've seen The Big Short, Mad Max: Fury Road, The Martian and Spotlight out of the best pics noms. I have The Revenant ready to watch but I don't know if I'll get to it before the show later.

I have no desire to watch Bridge of Spies, Brooklyn or Room. I don't doubt that Room is a good movie; the book got great response when it was released, but it's something I know I'd cry through and I really hate going into a movie knowing that. There's a reason why I'll never watch Up again and basically every Pixar short.

So here are my predictions for who I think will win and who I want to win and, if applicable, a runner up.

Final Tally: 24 awards handed out.
1st Choices: 11
I wish Choices: 5
Failboat: 8

Not bad!



Bold for will win
Italics for wish would win (generally, in some cases my secondary choices are just ones I think could win if my first guess fails, when I don't care who wins)
Underlined for second choice wish would win

BEST PICTURE

The Big Short
Bridge of Spies
Brooklyn
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Room
Spotlight - WHAT THE HELL?! From behind here comes SPOTLIGHT to snag the top spot of the night! I didn't even consider it in my predictions because I was sure it didn't stand a chance!

** I think the scope of The Revenant trumps the other films on this list. No, that's a lie. Mad Max: Fury Road trumps everything on this list. But if we're thinking realistically it's TR over MM, as much as that kills me. Because I could feel MM in my stomach as I watched. It made me anxious and left me enthralled and I was wowed the entire time by everything on that screen. It's something I'm so happy I saw on the big screen because it's a BIG SCREEN movie. I'm sure TR is, as well, but it's a quiet, more desolate movie that wows you with its beautiful sparseness. At least from what I can say as someone who hasn't seen it yet. :\

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
Matt Damon, The Martian
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant - Of course.
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl

**I have no horse in this race. I've only seen TR and TM out of these movies. I didn't think Matt Damon was all that in TM and, overall, I didn't like the movie very much. The award has been all but actually handed to Leo at this point but isn't there a tiny part in all of us that wants to see it go to someone else and for another one of these moments?



I think the Golden Globes hurt Matt Damon's chances here because of all the ~controversy~ over his movie being nominated as a comedy. I think Brian Cranston is probably the dark horse in this category, the one who could come up from behind and snatch the tiny golden man from Leo. We'll see.

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

Cate Blanchett, Carol
Brie Larson, Room - Totes. Glad the lead actor and actress roles were's way off like the supporting ones.
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn

**I don't really care who wins in this category because I haven't seen any of these movies. As much as I love Jennifer Lawrence I haven't actually seen a fuckton of her movies of late, even the ones that I've actively rooted for her in. I'm one of those fans, yes. But here I only added her to my list in a "JLAW, YEAH!" way.

I think Brie's got it but Saoirse could swoop in from behind to grab it because she's been working the circuit and been getting great reviews for her performance. I think the movie is barely more than a historical romance with some heart-wrenchingness behind it.

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Christian Bale, The Big Short
Tom Hardy, The Revenant
Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies - wuuuuuuuuuuut? Who the hell did the vote splitting for this guy to come up from behind? Sly and ... the other Mark?
Sylvester Stallone, Creed

** Out of the... okay, two movies I've seen on this list, I liked TBS the best but I did NOT like Christian Bale's character/role/him in it. I didn't hate it but I found his role a bit more distracting than anything. The movie itself, though? Awesome. I liked Spotlight, as well, but less so than TBS BUT I liked Mark Ruffalo's character quite a bit in it.

However, I think it's all moot because it seems that Sly's got this one on lock.

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
Rooney Mara, Carol
Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl I guessed wrong on this one and, admittedly, I was a bit torn on it when I was predicting.
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs

** As mentioned, I saw Spotlight but I don't think Rachel McAdams was particularly spectacular in this role. The actors/characters were really secondary to the overall plot of this movie and that was partly on purpose and partly because the story SHOULD be more important than the people who uncovered it. It was necessary to understand the reporters to a point because of their approach to uncovering it and the backlash from the community in such a Catholic city. Beyond that they were secondary to the story the movie was telling about the story the reporters were uncovering.

I'll put her as an "I wish" but she's not going to win. Alicia Vikander has been getting buzz but I don't know if she'll get it this year because it's her first year so the Academy might want to wait on her. I can't see them awarding a Tarantino movie in any aspect, I personally can't stand Rooney Mara so whatever. I guess that leaves tried and true Kate Winslet.

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

Anomalisa
Boy and the World
Inside Out - Yup.
Shaun the Sheep Movie
When Marnie Was There

** I haven't watched any of these movies but I think IO will take it? I won't watch it because I know I'll cry (see above). Maybe StSM could come up from behind but I have no idea.

CINEMATOGRAPHY

Carol
The Hateful Eight
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant - Yes on this one. I was a bit unsure about it.
Sicario

** These kinds of categories always stump me a bit because I don't know what technical aspects they're judged on (which extends to costuming, makeup, hair, sound, etc). I'm basing my choice on the love for TR, my love for MM and how visually stunning Sicario was. I would LOVE MM to win this one!

COSTUME DESIGN

Carol
Cinderella
The Danish Girl
Mad Max: Fury Road - My "I wish" won!!
The Revenant

** I feel like the Academy doesn't really know what to do with the movies that dare to imagine and think outside the box about post-apocalypse times and so they don't award those movies the same. But on the other hand, I suppose it can be seen as easier to go a bit wild and do whatever you want with sparse clothing in those situations, too. BUT. Furiosa had that amazing arm, there were a lot of extra elements with the War Boys, Immortan Joe, the Doof Warrior... Like, that shit was AMAZING.

Carol was a period piece with lovely clothes blah blah blah. I wish originality were awarded here.

DIRECTING

The Big Short
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant - Of course.
Room
Spotlight

** Both TR and MM were insanely huge undertakings, for different reasons. Alejandro G. Iñárritu wanted to film with all natural light in snowy, mountainous climes. George Miller, after years of development hell, went to Namibia and Australia and all of the vehicles were fully functioning. They both put their blood, sweat and tears into these films but I think TR will ultimately be rewarded even though I really think MM should get it.

DOCUMENTARY (FEATURE)

Amy - Yes.
Cartel Land
The Look of Silence
What Happened, Miss Simone?
Winter on Fire: Ukraine’s Fight for Freedom

** I have only heard of Amy and only from [livejournal.com profile] ohnotheydidnt. I know Cartel Land is on Netflix and I think I have it saved to my list but I haven't watched it or heard much about it. I have no horse in this race.

DOCUMENTARY (SHORT SUBJECT)

Body Team 12
Chau, beyond the Lines
Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah
A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness - I thought this was my official guess to win but it's good enough that it's the second one, considering I had NO knowledge of any of them!
Last Day of Freedom

** I haven't heard of a single one of these. Guesses ahoy! In this case my italicized choice is more like a second choice.

FILM EDITING

The Big Short
Mad Max: Fury Road - SO HAPPY ABOUT THIS! I wish I'd revised at the last second because when I caught up on all the work that went into editing this it was in my head that it was insane and should win but I guess I didn't expect MM to get its due!
The Revenant
Spotlight
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

** The Big Short was awesome and I think the story it told in the way it was told couldn't have been done without superb editing. But MM was also a massive undertaking that has a whole section devoted to it on its wiki and it sounds crazytown banana pants so I want it to win.

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

Embrace of the Serpent
Mustang
Son of Saul - yes.
Theeb
A War

** I haven't seen any of these but I've heard of SoS and Mustang so those are my bets.

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

Mad Max: Fury Road - YES!!
The 100-Year-Old Man Who Climbed out the Window and Disappeared
The Revenant

** Only three nominations for this category, which I don't get, but I'm going hard on MM. I've never heard of the 100-year-old man one and I think the makeup and hair was MUCH more creative for MM, obviously.

MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE)

Bridge of Spies
Carol
The Hateful Eight - I wasn't expecting this at all! I wonder how much influence Tarantino's speech at the GG's had on the voting for this because he went on and on about this dude who was 89 (or thereabouts) and he'd worked so hard and brilliantly so maybe the Academy was like- fuck it, it's this guy.
Sicario
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

** Oh, I'm TERRIBLE at these ones. I always tell people that music isn't my thing. I LIKE music, don't get me wrong, but I know what I like and often that isn't what's at the Grammys or classic stuff and I don't really pay attention to scores for the most part. I'm TOTALLY guessing with Sicario and BoS. I watched Sicario but I was paying more attention to the explosions and the grey area that Emily Blunt found herself falling into.

MUSIC (ORIGINAL SONG)

"Earned It," Fifty Shades of Grey
"Manta Ray," Racing Extinction
"Simple Song #3," Youth
"Til It Happens To You," The Hunting Ground
"Writing’s On The Wall," Spectre - I'm SO glad I called this right. The outrage was only after that performance which, admittedly, was amazing. BUT it doesn't change how I feel about Lady Gaga and her problematic ass. So while this song is shitty as hell and Sam Smith isn't shit I'm glad it won over her.

** Here's the thing. I don't want anything 50SoG to win because, LAWL, no. But I also don't want Lady Gaga to win because I kind of can't stand her (ESPECIALLY after that Golden Globes speech, JFC).

I will never begrudge her the need to speak out about her own experience being sexually assaulted and I think that if I believed her intentions were pure to shed more light and bring more exposure to the plight of sexual assaults on college campuses, and in GENERAL, I could grumble quietly. However, I feel she's jumped on the Kesha bandwagon and has been using her current shitty situation to her advantage and for all the #FreeKesha and Down-with-Dr.Luke-ing she's doing this week she hasn't said a peep about being personal and professional friends with R. Kelly and Terry Richardson, who have both been accused of heinous, disgusting sexual assaults and generally being pieces of shit. Don't throw stones, Lady Gaga.

So with that being said I'm okay with 50SoG winning best song or even the Bond song, as fucking boring as it is.

PRODUCTION DESIGN

Bridge of Spies
The Danish Girl
Mad Max: Fury Road - I didn't even have this as a long shot! Yay Mad Max!
The Martian
The Revenant

** Another one I don't really know much about and therefore never really guess right. If I think technically about these movies and what they involved I would go with TM and BoS. As much as I thought TM was boring and I didn't like it, it was pretty neat to see a desert in, like, Arizona, turned into Mars. And I would imagine BoS had some cool trickery with it being a period piece (maybe I'm being mislead by the whole BRIDGE part of the title, I dunno).

SHORT FILM (ANIMATED)

Bear Story - I got this one right!
Prologue
Sanjay’s Super Team
We Can’t Live without Cosmos
World of Tomorrow

** Haven't heard of a single one of these! I like animals, I'll go with the one with the bear in the title.

SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION)

Ave Maria
Day One
Everything Will Be Okay (Alles Wird Gut)
Shok
Stutterer - Yeah, I had no idea.

** Another one I've heard nothing about. Picking at random.

SOUND EDITING

Mad Max: Fury Road - SO happy for Mad Max!
The Martian
The Revenant
Sicario
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

** Uhhh, so does this one get awarded to the one that has the most distinguished explosions, or what?

SOUND MIXING

Bridge of Spies
Mad Max: Fury Road - I just picked the wrong one on both sound ones, not unexpected.
The Martian
The Revenant
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

** If I voted for TM for sound editing does it make sense to vote for it for mixing, as well? *shrugs*

VISUAL EFFECTS

Ex Machina - I wasn't expecting this. I didn't think it was on the radar at all since Alicia was nominated for her other movie. Ex Macina is on my list on Netflix, though, so I'll get around to it eventually.
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

** I MEAN, COME ON! MM has to win SOMETHING, right?!

WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)

The Big Short - My "I wish" won!
Brooklyn
Carol
The Martian
Room

** I don't think anything stands a chance against Room but I'd love if TBS won.

WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)

Bridge of Spies
Ex Machina
Inside Out
Spotlight - YES!
Straight Outta Compton

I'm a bit torn on this for reasons that have nothing to do with the films. Would the Academy award this one to SoC to try to "make amends" for everything else being so damn white? Or would they say, "fuck it, who cares?" I feel that, as an original script, Spotlight was great. To bring a scandal like that to the screen in a precise, beat-for-beat way and have it resonate with viewers (at least me) months later is amazing.

Finally, a second bump for the icons I posted yesterday.

35 x Arrow
19 x Misc tv (Code Black, Bitten, Chicago PD, Finding Carter, Elementary, etc)
14 x Buffy the Vampire Slayer
07 x 2 Broke Girls
07 x Agent Carter
05 x Bad Judge
05 x Doctor Who
05 x Misc movies (The Fifth Element & The Avengers)
02 x Agents of Shield



See all 100+ here at [livejournal.com profile] rockstar_pink.

[identity profile] ellipsisms.livejournal.com 2016-02-29 04:22 am (UTC)(link)
I'm so happy that Alicia won for best supporting actress! I didn't see the Danish Girl, but I loved her in Ex Machina! And I really hope Brie Larson wins for Room. <3